First new debt is approved, then the state looks for new revenue. This is exactly the pattern we had already warned about in March after the new government took office. Debt does not simply disappear just because it is packaged in special funds, shadow budgets or political promises for the future. In the end, this spree is paid for by citizens, savers, investors and above all the next generation.
Now the next group is apparently moving into the line of fire: crypto investors. Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has announced that he wants to tax cryptocurrencies “differently.” Details are still missing. But one question in particular is on the table: Will the current tax exemption after a one-year holding period be abolished?
What the crypto tax holding period has meant so far
Crypto assets such as Bitcoin have so far not been treated like shares for tax purposes in Germany. Gains from private sales transactions can be taxable if less than one year lies between purchase and sale. After this period has expired, private gains are generally tax-free, while shares, ETFs and dividends are subject to capital gains tax, which will probably also be targeted again in the future.
The holding period does not reward hectic in-and-out trading, but patience. Anyone who buys, documents, waits and sells only after more than twelve months is treated differently for tax purposes than someone who trades constantly and thereby potentially takes higher risks. Other private economic assets also have speculation periods. For real estate, ten years can apply under certain conditions; for many other economic assets, one year. Bitcoin and other crypto assets have so far been classified within this system.
That is exactly what could now be overturned. Politically, this is easy to sell: gains on shares are taxed, crypto gains after one year are not. So, supposedly, one only has to ensure equal treatment. That sounds clean, but once again it is far too simplistic. Because tax law is not only a source of revenue. It creates expectations, incentives and trust. Anyone who has invested for years under existing rules must be able to rely on the state not overturning those rules retroactively or without clean transition arrangements. Otherwise, tax policy becomes a permanent factor of uncertainty.
The state is looking for money and finds crypto investors
According to media reports and statements from the Federal Press Conference, the new crypto taxation, together with the fight against financial and tax crime, is supposed to bring in around two billion euros. This linkage alone is remarkable. Tax crime and long-term Bitcoin holdings end up linguistically in the same pot—and that does not do justice to the matter. When a reform first appears as a budgetary measure, it is not primarily about a better tax system. It is about money. The state has approved spending, needs revenue and is looking for groups where political resistance appears manageable.
Crypto investors are particularly suitable for this: Many still associate Bitcoin with speculation, gambling or dubious platforms. That makes it easier to justify a tightening. But this pigeonhole is convenient and factually incorrect. Many do not hold Bitcoin as a short-term trade, but as a long-term store of value. Others see it as a counterposition to monetary devaluation or as a technological alternative to the traditional financial system.
Whether this view is convincing is for every taxpayer to decide for themselves. From a tax-policy perspective, however, something else is decisive: anyone who abolishes the holding period does not only hit speculators. They also hit those who are precisely not speculating, but holding for years. That would be an absurd incentive. Short-term speculation does not become less attractive, but long-term discipline becomes less valuable. The state would therefore not be fighting the crypto casino, but punishing precisely those investors who bring patience and planning.
So far, these are still confused ideas from the SPD finance minister, and many questions remain open: What happens to existing holdings? Does a new rule apply only to purchases from a certain cutoff date? Will there be transition periods? Which tax rate should apply? How will losses be offset? And how will wallet transfers, staking, lending, forks or decentralized exchanges be treated?
What a fair reform would have to deliver
A fair reform of crypto taxation would be possible. But it would have to be cleanly justified and technically manageable. First, there needs to be grandfathering. Anyone who bought before a change in the law must not be placed in a worse position retroactively. Anything else would be an attack on trust and planning security.
Second, policymakers must clearly say what they actually want. Is it about equal treatment with shares? Then loss offsetting, allowances and the entire capital gains tax must also be discussed. Is it about tax evasion? Then better enforcement is something different from a blanket tax increase.
Third, long-term holding must not be devalued for tax purposes. Anyone who shows patience should not be treated in the same way as someone who speculates daily. Especially in a market that fluctuates strongly anyway, this difference is important.
Fourth, the rules must remain simple. Cryptocurrencies are technically complex enough. If normal transactions can only be managed with specialist software, tax advisers and constant legal updates, no fair system is created. What emerges is bureaucracy with a deterrent effect.
